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Prechter Called the Uptrend 'Out' in April

June 9, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

Even non-sports fans have heard by now about the recent debacle known as Baseballgate.

With two outs in the ninth inning, a first-base umpire called "SAFE" when the runner was clearly "OUT." But this was no ordinary missed call; it cost Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga a perfect game.

And as the blogosphere flooded with memories of other historic slip-ups that cost "so and so" star "this and that" honor. Demands for the commissioner of baseball to reverse the bad call grew louder by the hour.

It was indeed a very bad call. But the biggest, baddest call of all was not made on a sports field. It was made in the field of finance -- specifically on the stock market. To wit: The mainstream umpires of finance stood near first base, and in April made this emphatic call for the uptrend in stocks:

"SAFE!!"

Call Your Own Shots -- Remove Dangerous Mainstream Assumptions from Your Investment Process. Elliott Wave International's FREE, 118-page Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Click here to learn more and download your free, 118-page ebook.

In case you missed the event, here's an instant replay:

  • "Stocks Remain In A Powerful Bull Market." (April 10 Bloomberg)
  • "Stocks Haven't Lost Their Appeal As The Market Goes Up, Up, And Away." (April 21 US News & World Report)
  • "You can use any number of words to describe this bull market. Frothy is not one of them. This market is reasonably priced." (April 21 AP)
  • "US Stocks Post Longest Winning Streak Since 2004. The recovery should be sustainable and that will drive the market." (April 24 Bloomberg)
  • "All the economic reports are pointing up... despite lingering worries over debt problems in Greece. Right now, there is virtually no evidence of a top." (April 30 USA Today)

Yet from its April 26 peak, the DJIA turned down in a jaw-dropping 1000-plus point selloff. The market suffered its worst May since 1940.

The markets have no commissioner to reverse the bad call of the financial mainstream. But at least one team of analysts remained ahead of the most game-changing moves in the world's leading stock market, including a forecast that called the rally "OUT" in April 2010. Consider the following insight from EWI President Robert Prechter:

On April 16, Prechter published his April Elliott Wave Theorist titled ""Deadly Bearish Picture." Notice the dates.

"We can project a top...between April 15 and May 7, 2010. It is rare to have technical indicators all lined up on one side of the ledger. They were lined up this way -- on the bullish side -- in late February-early March of 2009. Today, they are just as aligned, but on the bearish side."

April 26 marks the high for the DJIA, followed by the devastating drop on May 7 -- exactly within the date range Prechter's forecast called for.

Call Your Own Shots -- Remove Dangerous Mainstream Assumptions from Your Investment Process. Elliott Wave International's FREE, 118-page Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Click here to learn more and download your free, 118-page ebook

'Defensive' Stocks: Are They the Ticket in a Downturn?
In a severe sell-off, 99 percent of ALL stocks can fall.
June 3, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

Approximately three out of four stocks go down in a bear market. This ratio doesn't just apply to high beta names; historically, 75 percent of all stocks go down when the general market falls.

Considering we could be headed into a severe bear market (read Bob Prechter's latest special two-issue Elliott Wave Theorist, if you haven't yet), we could see more than 75 percent of stocks take a dive. In that case, even a basket of "defensive" or "quality" names isn't likely to help your portfolio. What good are dividends when you're losing far, far more through capital depreciation? 

On May 20, when the DJIA lost 376 points, 497 out of the S&P 500 stocks ended the day lower. (In other words, 99 percent of stocks fell.) Yet a financial television host recommended "defensive" names the day after. Wouldn't his viewers be better served if he said, "You may want to step aside for now"? Apparently, stocks of one kind or another must be recommended -- no matter what the market is doing or is expected to do.

Read Part One of Robert Prechter's Latest Two-Part, April-May Theorists FREE
The April-May Theorist series entitled "Deadly Bearish Big Picture" reveals a lucid picture for 2010-2016. It's the flipside of Robert Prechter's February
2009 forecast for a "sharp and scary" rally. Click here to download the 10-page part one for FREE now.

How about "quality" stocks that don't fit the "defensive" category, like blue chips or major technology names? The 1973-1974 bear market provides a clue. The "nifty fifty" stocks were "glamour" stocks; pundits said the "nifty fifty" should "be bought and never sold." However, by the time the bear market bottomed, 

  • Polaroid cratered 91% (eventually went bankrupt)
  • Avon nose-dived 86%
  • Xerox fell 71%
  • Standard Brands Paint (eventually went bankrupt) 

Here's what Prechter said on the matter in his September 2009 Theorist: "When the stock market overall ended its bear market in the fourth quarter of 1974, the nifty fifty had fallen substantially from their highs, and many investors continued to hold them under the belief that they would come roaring back. But they underperformed most other groups of stocks throughout the rest of the 1970s and into the 1980s." [emphasis added]

Similarly, big-name stocks that fell in 2007-2009 have yet to come close to fully recovering. Today's favored stocks could likewise nose-dive. 

Learn from the past. Avoid the mistake of holding a defensive or quality stock "all the way down."

Read Part One of Robert Prechter's Latest Two-Part, April-May Theorists FREE
The April-May Theorist series entitled "Deadly Bearish Big Picture" reveals a lucid picture for 2010-2016. It's the flipside of Robert Prechter's February
2009 forecast for a "sharp and scary" rally. Click here to download the 10-page part one for FREE now.